Riverhounds Notebook: Projecting a difficult, but not impossible path to the postseason with 12 matches remaining | Pittsburgh Soccer Now (2024)

Photo courtesy Ed Thompson

The Pittsburgh Riverhounds have 12 matches remaining in the 2024 campaign, and they’re currently sitting in 10th place (out of 12 teams) in the USL Championship’s Eastern Conference.

The Hounds still very much control their own destiny, starting with Wednesday night’s match against Detroit City FC.

With the team getting back to Pittsburgh late Sunday, with a quick prep time and turnaround that includes light training on Monday and Tuesday, expect some squad rotation for Wednesday’s match. The good news for Pittsburgh is that they don’t have any players on the injury report and will see the return of Bradley Sample after sitting out the last match due to a red card suspension. The short turnaround is also applicable for Detroit City too, as theyplayed last weekend, drawing 1-1 with Rhode Island FC.

A strong push forward with positive results, especially in the matches against the teams in front of them, could get the Hounds qualified for the postseason for the seventh straight season — all under Head Coach Bob Lilley. But it’s not going to be easy and they’ll have to keep posting results, as they’ve currently build a four-match unbeaten streak.

The question is, how much room for error do the Hounds have?

The realistic answer is not very much.

Pittsburgh is still sitting 10th place, out of 12 teams in the Eastern Conference. The challenge is that many of the teams they’re chasing, have games at hand on the Hounds, with 13 or 14 matches still remaining in their seasons.

Looking back at past two seasons with 34 games played, here’s point totals for eighth place and final playoff berth:

• 2023 – Detroit City (41)
• 2022 – FC Tulsa (42)
• You will have to go back to 2019 to the previous time 34 match season was used, and that year, Ottawa, finished in 8th with 52 points. That year, USLC rewarded more postseason spots in a larger, 18-team conference, as Birmingham got in finishing in 10th place with 43 points.
• 2018, Bob Lilley’s first year managing the Hounds, it was expansion Nashville who finished in 8th place in the same format as this year, with 49 points in a 34-match regular season.
• Ironically, when the league used a different four division format within the two Conferences with 32 games played in 2021, Tulsa was also the lowest Eastern Conference team to get into the playoffs, with 47 points.

This research exercise also shows how much the league has grown but also in the past 10 years, as the regular season games played increased incrementally from 2014-2015 (28 games) to 2016 (30) to 2017 (32), then 2018 (34) — with interruptions/alterations due to COVID in 2020 and 2021.

But back to the point of the exercise… it feels as if — at a minimum — the Hounds season-ending points total will likely have to be between 46 to 50 point range to likely finish in eighth place and earn a playoff berth.

Currently posting 25 points and with 12 matches remaining, the maximum number of points the Hounds can reach is 36 (if they were to somehow win all matches). That would take them to 61 points. Lets face it, as good as the Hounds are playing, that’s extremely unlikely. The sobering part of this for Hounds fans to absorb, is that Pittsburgh won the Players Shield last season with 67 points.

To reach the 46 to 50 final points threshold we’re setting here in this exercise, the Hounds will have to deliver in the range of 21-25 points. Thus, in the next 12 matches, Pittsburgh likely needs to win at least six or seven matches (18 to 21 points), and draw at least two to five of those too.

The remaining 12-match schedule includes six matches against opponents (Det City, Birmingham twice, Indy, Rhode Island and Loudoun) who are above them, but within striking distance. There are also two matches against top three teams in the East (Charleston and Tampa Bay) and one against the last place team in the East (The Miami FC), while all of the remaining matches vs Western Conference teams (three) are at the friendly confines of Highmark Stadium.

Here’s a look at the final 12 matches

1. Wednesday – at Detroit City FC (Eastern Conf 7th place – 29 pts)
2. Saturday 8/10 – home vs San Antonio (West Conf 10th pl)
3. Saturday 8/17 – home vs Colorado Springs (West Conf 5th pl)
4. Saturday 8/24 – at Birmingham Legion FC (East Conf 5th pl – 32 pts)
5. Saturday 8/23 – at Indy Eleven (East Conf 4th pl – 32 pts)
6. Saturday 9/7 – home vs Rhode Island (East Conf 8th pl – 29 pts)
7. Saturday 9/14 – at Tampa Bay Rowdies (East Conf 3rd pl – 39 pts)
8. Saturday 9/29 – home vs Birmingham Legion FC (East Conf 5th pl – 32 pts)
9. Saturday 10/5 – at The Miami FC (East Conf 12 pl – 8 pts)
10. Saturday 10/12 – home vs Charleston (East Conf 2nd pl – 45 pts)
11. Saturday 10/19 – at Loudoun United FC (East Conf 6th pl – 30 pts)
12. Saturday 10/25 – home vs El Paso (West Conf 12th pl – 13 pts)

All things being said, here are some things that point to this being a pretty favorable schedule for the Hounds.

• While this is an even split between home and away matches, they don’t have any more West Coast trips.
• The longest trips remaining are short flights down to the Sunshine State, where they’ve had success the past couple of seasons.
• They’ll play three of the final five and two of the final three at home
• After this week, they won’t have any midweek matches (barring postponements)
• They also have the benefit of facing both Eastern and Western Conference’s last place teams (The Miami FC on the road and El Paso at home) in two of the final four matches of the season. The El Paso home match is the season finale, where they still very likely could need to clinch a playoff spot.

The most important thing that should give Hounds fans hope that they can return to the postseason is that they’re in very good form right now. They must continue to start each match on the front foot. On Saturday, when they scored in the first half, even when they ran out of steam against Sacramento in terms of attacking and creating chances, they escaped California with a win thanks to a standout performance from goalkeeper Eric Dick. They can’t afford to follow that script of leaving their goalkeeper under assault like that in each match, but the early goals need to keep coming.In the current four match unbeaten streak, they scored a first half goal in each contest, and eight goals total in the first half. Prior to that, in their 10 match winless streak in league play, they scored just four goals total, with just one coming in the first half (a 44th minute tally from Edward Kizza vs North Carolina FC on May 18.

Bottom line, score early goals and play stronger for 90 minutes in most every remaining match, and they have a strong chance of pulling out a win.

That’s a lot easier said than done, right?

What’s a realistic and fairly conservative scenario for the Hounds punch their ticket to the postseason?

The remaining matches can be put in a few different categories as defined above with a conservative projected points total for each grouping:

1. vs Teams They’re Chasing Down (remaining opponents just above them in Eastern Conference table)

Of the six matches vs teams right above them, the Hounds can’t afford to drop points in many of those matches. Therefore at least four to six wins should be the benchmark but it’s not going to be easy. Four of these six matches are on the road, so results will be critical. Even if they win both home matches (vs Birmingham and Rhode Island), then post a 1-1-2 (w-l-d) mark in these road matches, that would garner at total of 11 out of a possible 18 points. Anything greater than this will be massive.

Projected points vs Teams Hounds are Chasing Down: 3-1-2 (W-L-D) = 11 points

2. Two Matches vs Top Three Eastern Conference Teams (Charleston at home and Tampa Bay on the road)

Lets just say this very well could be an even split, either with both matches being draws or one win / one loss scenario. This would be two or three out of a possible six points.

Projected points vs Teams in Top Three in East: 1-1-0 (W-L-D) = 3 points

3. Two Matches vs meddling to good Western conference Teams at home (San Antonio and Colorado Springs)

Nothing less than four points is acceptable here. The San Antonio match up might be tough for the Hounds, coming off a pair of road games with short rest, while the visitors will have a week between matches, but they’re also a struggling team this year. Colorado Springs are much improved after a slow start, but have been a been up and down in their most recent stretch of play. The Hounds cannot afford to drop points in these matches, but something tells me they are likely looking at win and a draw here.

Projected points vs San Antonio and Colorado Springs: 1-0-1 (W-L-D) = 4 points

4. Two Matches vs the two last place teams in each conference (The Miami FC and El Paso Locomotive)

If the Hounds don’t win these two matches, they won’t deserve to earn a playoff spot. It’s that simple. Both teams are currently in poor form. Sure, things could change between now and the final four weeks of the season. Road trips to Miami have never been easy for Pittsburgh, but again, they have been successful of late in matches in South Florida (winning three in a row). El Paso could potentially come to Highmark Stadium with everything on the line for the Hounds. Everyone else they’re in contention with will be playing that night with many of the kickoff times slated for 7 p.m. — though Birmingham and Loudoun will have 8:30 and 10:30 p.m. starts at San Antonio and Oakland.

Projected points vs The Miami FC and El Paso: 2-0-0 (W-L-D) = 6 points

Based on these fairly conservative projections, the Hounds would finish 7-2-3 — good for 24 points — in their final 12 matches to reach 49 total points. There’s no guarantee that point total will get them through, as they’ll have plenty of competition but that’s a reasonable benchmark.

It will be fun to check back at these projections over the course of the next three months and 12 matches to see how this pans out.

This is an uphill climb for sure for the Hounds.

Anything less than 24 points, and Pittsburgh is going to need a lot more help — and based on the level of competition in the Eastern Conference, will likely come up short in their bid for the postseason.

Preview: Rematch vs Detroit City FC

One of the most impressive performances of the season for the Hounds came in a 2-0 win vs Detroit City FC at home in April.

Hounds dominate Detroit, 2-0, in front of record-setting crowd

Takeaways and Player Grades: Griffin, Forbes point the way for Riverhounds’ core ‘group of leaders’ to each contribute to dominant effort vs Detroit

Now they head to Detroit, where they’ve played three times and each time, came away with a draw. Both the 2022 and 2023 meetings at Detroit ended as draws, and close contests are the norm in this series — neither team has scored more than two goals in any of the six previous meetings.

Detroit also enters with lower-scoring matches being their norm at just 26 goals scored and 23 allowed. Between that and the series history between the sides —three draws in six all-time meetings and no team scoring three goals in any of those matches —it’s no surprised the bookmakers rate the match the most likely of the Championship weekend to end in a draw at +210.

Maxi Rodriguezremains the focal point of the Detroit offense with a team-high seven goals and three assists — he has scored twice in six meetings with the Hounds —and goalkeeperNathan Steinwaschercontinues to be among the best in the league despite his numbers sliding slightly this year from previous seasons.

Look for a more detailed match preview to come either late Tuesday or early Wednesday.